60 Steps Revisited: Step 52 - Expect Premature Falls In Crime

Back in 2009, I did a series of posts covering the excellent book Crime Analysis For Problem Solvers. The book is published by the US DOJ's Problem Oriented Policing Center (POP Center). Because of the value I think this book has for crime analysts, and policing in general, I am going to re-post this series on here on the blog.

When you are in the middle of a crime problem, you probably don't care why your crime problem diminishes. But, in order to most accurately determine what is effective you need to analyze for what is discussed in this step, Step 52 - Expect Premature Falls In Crime. The authors of Crime Analysis For Problem Solvers state:

Offenders often believe that prevention measures have been brought into force before they actually have been started. This leads to what has been called the "anticipatory benefits" of prevention. Though these anticipatory effects can occur by accident, the police can make deliberate efforts to create or intensify them. To do so successfully, police must have useful insight into how offenders perceive the situation and have methods for deceiving offenders as to the true nature of the intervention. 

Here's the main reasons that the authors believe anticipatory benefits occur:

1. Preparation-anticipation
2. Publicity/disinformation
3. Preparation-disruption
4. Creeping implementation
5. Preparation-training
6. Motivation

Read the original article for a full discussion of these reasons. One thing I do think is interesting is deliberately enhancing the effect of some of these reasons in order to reduce your crime problem. Nothing like a little publicity to make the crooks think you are watching them more closely than you might actually be.

Next time, we'll look at Step 53 - Test For Significance.